Mixed results from latest Gallup polling on abortion

posted at 2:55 pm on May 23, 2011 by Ed Morrisseyprinter-friendly

Gallup has polled on abortion for decades, ever since Roe v Wade overturned state bans on the procedure.� Two years ago, Gallup f0und that the pro-life position had taken a majority for the first time (51/42), but retreated somewhat in 2010 to a narrow 47/45 plurality.� Their latest poll, released today, gives the pro-choice position a plurality edge for the first time in three years:

Americans are closely divided between those calling themselves ?pro-choice? and those who are ?pro-life,? now 49% and 45%, respectively, in Gallup?s 2011 update on U.S. abortion attitudes. This is similar to a year ago, when 45% were ?pro-choice? and 47% ?pro-life.? However, it is the first time since 2008 that the ?pro-choice? position has had the numerical advantage on this Gallup trend.

However, a majority still believes abortion to be morally wrong:

Gallup?s 2011 Values and Beliefs survey, conducted May 5-8, finds a bit more public agreement about the morality of abortion. Just over half of Americans, 51%, believe abortion is ?morally wrong,? while 39% say it is ?morally acceptable.? Americans? views on this have been fairly steady since 2002, except for 2006, when they were evenly divided.

That has been true for almost the entire polling series.� Only in three years over the past ten has a majority failed to support the morally-wrong position (2001, 2006, and 2008).� Despite that, in most years since the 1975 start of the polling series, a majority supports legalized abortion ?under certain circumstances.?� The position of legal under all circumstances has never had more than 34% support in almost four decades of polling, and it around the historical average this year at 27%.� Those supporting the position of making abortion illegal under all circumstances hit its historical high in this poll, but that?s only 22%.

The American populace seems to still be in flux on this question, but LifeNews puts a positive spin on it:

By a 24 percent margin, 61-37 percent, Americans take the pro-life view that abortions should either be legal under no circumstances or legal only under a few circumstances. Although Gallup doesn?t specify those ?few? circumstances, polling data has consistently shown that, when asked about cases such as rape,� incest, or the life of the mother, a majority of Americans want all or almost all abortions made illegal ? leaving only life of the mother or rape and incest as the exceptions.

?Americans are rather conservative in their stance on abortion, with 61% now preferring that abortion be legal in only a few circumstances or no circumstances. By contrast, 37% want abortion legal in all or most circumstances,? Gallup analyst Lydia Saad writes. ?Over the past two decades, Americans have consistently leaned toward believing abortion should be legal in only a few or no circumstances, although less so in the mid-1990s than since about 1997, when combined support for these has averaged close to 60%.?

In fact, Gallup polling shows that, since 1994, a majority of Americans have held a pro-life view wanting all or almost all abortions made illegal ? and that pro-life view has strengthened with an average of 60 percent of Americans saying that over the years.

The changes this year look like they could be classified as statistical noise.� However, after the 2009 result, the pro-life movement thought they had started to build momentum.� This poll suggests that more hard work is ahead before that becomes the case.

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Source: http://hotair.com/archives/2011/05/23/mixed-results-from-latest-gallup-polling-on-abortion/

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